Early Fantasy thoughts...

Alright I'm back.  Sorry I didn't feel like writing during those dreadful months following the Super Bowl where I have to pretend to be a college basketball fan and the only football I get to watch are replays of games I have already seen on the NFL channel.  Now that the draft has happened and most players who are moving teams have moved fantasy projections can start being addressed.  Obviously Peterson will be number 1 but those few picks following him will be highly debated.  Here are my tops at each position and some warnings about those guys you may want to stay away from.

Lets start with Runningback because RBs make or break your fantasy team:

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Matt Forte

3. Michael Turner

4. Maurice Jones-Drew

5. Brian Westbrook

Caution:  Clinton Portis (If you could get him at a value pick in the third round or later do it, but don't waste one of your top two picks on him.  He's an aging RB in a shaky offense and last year I feel will be the last highly productive season he has.)

This is the order most drafts will probably go, some may have Turner jump up,some may have Turner fall back.  Forte's worth has gone up since acquiring Cutler who will stretch the field a little more for the Bears.  Expect around 2,2oo yds of total offense from Forte and around 15 tds.  Turner will rush for about 1,500 yds but do not expect anything from him in the passing game, if he scores 15+ tds he's worthy of a top 3 pick.  MJD could easily be the top RB in fantasy points this year.  With the departure of Fred Taylor he could put up ridiculous numbers.  He should lead all RBs in catches around 60+ and will likely have 1,300+ rushing yds, 16-18 tds.  Brian Westbrook just needs to stay healthy.  When healthy he's an advanced version of MJD but injury issues have held back his full fantasy potential.  40+ catches 1,100+ rushing yds 12-14 tds.  Sorry to LT this is the first year in many that your name is not there at the top, but he will be solid, if he's available at the 7 or 8 spot take him.

Quarterbacks:  I cant really put these in a top 5 so I am gonna put them in two groups, Top Tier and 2nd Echelon.  Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees are the top tier QBs.  If you are willing to sacrifice getting a solid 2nd RB for one of these guys then go for it, they are consistent and, with the exception of Tom Brady last year, very durable.  The next group of QBs contain all the QBs who should not go in the first two rounds, but who will all be quality QBs.  Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Tony Romo, Donovan McNabb, Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, and Matt Schaub.  Alright I have 10 QBs here, that means if you are in a 10 team league these should be the 10 starting, maybe a Matt Hasselbeck, Ben Roethlisberger or Matt Cassel but do not try and look smart and play a reach like Joe Flacco or Jamarcus Russel, that's not smart.  

Caution:  Chad Pennington (I like Pennington but not as a fantasy QB, Ronnie Brown and Pat White in the Wildcat cut down on Pennington's red zone opportunities.)

Wideouts:  I'll give you my clear top 3 and then my cloudy 3 that follow them.  Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Randy Moss.  Andre and Larry is a coin flip, if either of them were playing with Brady they would be the clear number 1.  After Larry's postseason performance last year he is worthy of a pick near the turn at the end of 1st or top of 2nd round.  Expect Randy to get back to his 2007 form with Brady healthy.  My cloudy three that follow them is cloudy because there are several guys you could slide in this spot but here are my three, Greg Jennings, Calvin Johnson, and Reggie Wayne.  Jennings proved to be Rodgers favorite target last year, expect 11-13 tds and 1,300 yds.  Calvin Johnson is scary good on a scary bad team.  Hopefully him and Stafford get things clicking and you could get 12-14 tds and 1,2oo yds from him.  Reggie Wayne is just a flat out solid wideout to have.  Peyton does not have poor games so it is unlikely that Reggie will ever give you a dreadful day, especially with Marvin Harrison's departure Reggie may see even more balls this year then he ever has. 

Caution:  Chargers Receivers and Saints Receivers (I'm not saying don't pick them but do not expect consistency from them, Rivers and Brees share the wealth better than any other QBs in the league.  Jackson could kill it one week, Chambers the next week, you just never know, and remember last year, Lance Moore had twice as many tds as Marques Colston....???) 

Tight Ends:  Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark, Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez, Owen Daniels.  Expect a break out season for Greg Olson on the Bears who may quickly become Cutler's favorite target because of their bleak group of wideouts.

Caution:  Todd Heap (Has the capability but Flacco avoids him the closer they get to the end zone, only 3tds last season.)

Rookies on the radar:  Knowshon Moreno could be a potential solid 2nd RB, I'd be higher on him if Shanahan was still the coach because he could make anyone a 1,000 yd rusher.  Don't expect too much from Beanie Wells, 10 touches a game, Hightower is the Cardinals goal line go to guy.  Hakeem Nicks could settle in very quickly with Eli, I expect more from him then Harvin or Crabtree because of the quarterback situations on their respective teams.  Maclin lined up across from Desean Jackson is a dynamic and versatile speed combo.  Maclin will make a few big plays this season but don't expect consistent numbers.  

Final Thought: T.O. don't draft him before the fifth round he's in Buffalo and his QB is Trent Edwards who last week at a Blue Jays game threw out the opening pitch and missed the plate six feet outside (if you don't believe me youtube it, it's hilarious how bad it is), enough said.  

6 and Counting

Ben Roethlisberger is quietly crawling himself into the Elway and Montana echelon of quarterbacks. He is not flashy, not everything is pretty but he made every throw you can think of to help his team win the game. For the first 57 minutes of the game, Kurt Warner clearly looked like the better quarterback on the field but the last drive that Roethlisberger put together with conversion after conversion to Santonio Holmes will go down historically as one of the best drives of all time. I hope the loss in the Super Bowl will not keep Kurt Warner out of the Hall of Fame, it shouldn't and any knowledgeable person who has a vote should rightfully vote him in. Although he was held to one catch in the first half Larry Fitzgerald stepped up huge in the second half. He caught two TDs and put the Cards ahead with, what happened to be too much time on the clock, under three minutes. Neither team could get their running games going so each quarterback pretty much had to put their team on their back. Big Ben played years better then he had in his previous Super Bowl. Warner played near flawless besides the last play of the first half where he threw a pick six to the leagues defensive MVP James Harrison. The game winning catch was controversial and had to be reviewed, and living in the Phoenix area I have yet to talk to someone who will admit that was a catch. I am okay with the call on the catch, but not throwing a flag for Santonio's Lebron-like celebration following the catch deserved a 15 yarder on the kickoff. This could have definitely affected the outcome because the field position for the Cards on the ensuing drive could have been substantially better. Pittsburgh's defense did hold the Cards off on the final drive ending on a sack and fumble by Kurt Warner, which also should have been reviewed because it was close to a forward pass but the officials failed to review this play. Looking forward to these teams future, I feel Pittsburgh will be probably entirely intact for the 09' season, the Cards on the other hand will be a whole lot different. Both coordinators are going to be gone and Anquan Boldin will likely bounce to somewhere else, I expect for him to go somewhere in the division like Seattle or San Francisco so he can cause the Cards fits twice a year. Expect Pittsburgh to be in the top three power rankings at the start of next season, expect the cards not to be in the top five. You could not have asked for a crazier better season in 2008, stay tuned for my offseason fantasy projections, and my preseason rankings and picks.

Desert vs. Steeltown Super Bowl XLIII

Alrighty, here we go Super Bowl XLIII. Arizona is the underdog as they have been in every game of the post-season, it seems to be like a fine position for the Cards to be playing from. I saw this interview with John Madden yesterday and he said something that makes you realize what is so great about the Super Bowl, he said analysts and people are not predicting the winner, they are guessing. Think about that statement, "they are not predicting they are guessing." This is the beauty of the Super Bowl, it comes down to the best two teams in the league in one game to decide who is the world champions. No other teams in the league matter right now, the Titans started 11-0 doesn't matter, the Colts won 11 straight doesn't matter, Dolphins won 10 more games this year than last year doesn't matter. Ask Peyton Manning or Tom Brady if they would rather be in Big Ben's shoes right now than their own, I'm sure they would say they would rather be in his. It does not matter that the Cards went 9-7 in the regular season or that the Steelers had the best rated defense in the league, all that matters is what happens in the 60 minutes played on Sunday. That is why this is the most popular thing on television all year, nobody knows what is going to happen, Hines Ward doesn't know, Kurt Warner doesn't know, John Madden doesn't know, Al Michaels doesn't know, nobody knows. Company's pay millions of dollars for seconds of air time during this game, imagine that, "Oh here, here is 10 million dollars let me put some frogs saying Bud-Weis-Er on the screen for 30 seconds," that is how big the Super Bowl is. It is bigger than the Kentucky Derby, bigger than the Indy 500, bigger than the World Series, the NBA Finals, and the Stanley Cup, you get seven games in those sports in football you get one, one game that will be remembered forever. The entire country will be tuned in Sunday afternoon to see what team does it this year and which team will be enshrined in history amongst the greatest teams ever. So like Madden says, I will not be making a prediction this week, I will be making a guess: I am guessing that the Arizona Cardinals will end their 61 year drought of not having a title and win this Sunday. I have nothing but great things to say about both teams but I think the big play ability of Arizona will be the difference and Kurt Warner will win his second Super Bowl MVP solidifying his spot amongst the games greatest ever in the Hall of Fame. Enjoy the game everyone, I know I will.

Cinderella Cards Continue Quest...

The way the atmosphere in Glendale was you would have thought the Cards had never played in a conference championship before, and yea that is the truth. Once again it was Larry, Larry, and Larry, 3tds in the first half. Warner came out on fire hooking up with his main man several times in the first half opening up a good lead on the Eagles. The Eagles showed their resiliency in the second half and mounted a good comeback but Kurt Warner played near flawlessly orchestrating a 14 play near 8 minute drive in the fourth quarter to put the game just out of reach for the Eagles. The game was not flawless for the Cards though, a blowup between O-coordinator and Anquan Boldin put a small damper on the biggest win in the franchises history. The Cards say this blowup does not matter and will not affect them in the Super Bowl. I like this Todd Haley guy and I think he handled it the right way, he did not walk away from Boldin he gave it right back to him and Anquan shut up. I could not disagree more with the people who say the coordinator should call plays from the booth so incidences on the sideline like this do not happen, if Haley would have been in the booth Boldin would have been screaming at someone else and the situation could have escalated even more. When you have a coordinator like Todd Haley who is not afraid to get back in the face of one of the team's stars it reminds the entire team that no single player is bigger then the team or the goal of the team, Jason Garrett and T.O. are you listening...? Boldin is a class act and it was a heat of the moment type thing and I do not think it should affect them in the Super Bowl.

About the Steelers, what can you say, they are the Steelers. Controlled the ball, did not turn it over, and Big Ben made the big plays when you needed the big plays. Hines Ward's injury took away Ben's go to guy but that did not matter Santonio Holmes stepped up big. Troy Polamalu showed Ed Reed that there is another safety that can pick the ball off and take it to the house, this play by Polamalu sealed the victory. As I expected Flacco got a little rattled in this one, I am not going to blame it on him being a rookie though, Pittsburgh's defense is so good they could have done that against almost every quarterback in the league.

Feelin' Kinda SUNDAY!

Heavyweight fight in the AFC and battle of the veteran QBs in the NFC. First off I want to point out a few things that most analysts are forgetting to mention right about now: It is a general consensus among people like Ron Jaworski, Stephen A. Smith, and Skip Bayless that this is a quaterback driven league and that games are won in the passing game, lets look at what has happened come playoff time. The top passers with the exception of Kurt Warner are vacationing watching these games on the television, no Peyton, no Brees, no Rivers, no Romo, no Favre, no Cutler. Lets look at the teams that are left Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Philly, 3 of the best 4 defenses in the league, and Arizona a mediocre defense in the regular season is playing with urgency and in 2 playoff games has a +7 turnover differential. Looks like this quarterback driven league is run off the road by the stand up defenses come playoff time.

Philly vs. Arizona: On Thanksgiving Arizona went into Philadelphia and got embarrassed, do not expect a blowout in the NFC Championship. Arizona was on a short weeks rest and had to travel across the country with little gameplan. Look at that game, there defensive gameplan was very bland and McNabb and Westbrook diced them up. The Cards got in a hole early and couldn't climb out. The difference in this one should be which defense can force the other team's QB into more mistakes.

Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore: Pittsburgh 2-0 vs. Baltimore this season, do not listen to that stuff that it is hard to beat a team 3 times in one season. It is hard to beat any team in the playoffs despite what happened in the regular season. All that 2-0 means is you had their number. Pittsburgh should have the edge, their Super Bowl team is almost entirely entact besides Bill Cowher and Jerome Bettis, it has been a few more years for Baltimore although their recipe for winning is very similar to that of their Super Bowl year. Both defenses are very stingy when it comes to giving up points, it should come down to who scores touchdowns and not field goals.

Picks: NFC game I think is literally 50/50 but I am going with the Cards at home and hopefully my boy Warner building that hall of fame resume.

AFC game should be an old fashioned slobberknocker but I think Flacco will show he is human and the Pittsburgh D will take advantage of the rookie, I'm taking Pittsburgh.

Sanchez bouncing...STRAIGHT UP

Straight up this is a great decision to forgo the 5th season at USC and go to the NFL. Think about this for a minute, Sam Bradford is staying at Oklahoma. This means Sanchez will only be battling with Georgia's Matthew Stafford for the top spot to the Detroit Lions. Matt Leinart's decision to stay must have been a glaring factor to Sanchez, remember if Leinart would have come out a year earlier he likely would have been the number one overall pick to San Francisco and made millions of dollars more, not to mention probably be starting rather than waiting his turn behind Kurt Warner. Look at this from Bradford's perspective, he probably had a slight edge over Stafford but in deciding to stay in the college game his stock can only go down. I think Bradford's decision to stay in school will probably end up similar to Matt Leinart's decision which means less money. Things could not have fallen into place any better for Mark Sanchez he's leaving school following a 4td 400yd performance in the Rose Bowl route of Big 10 foe Penn State, what's better than that. Remember Leinart returned only to be outplayed by Vince Young in a national title game, you think losing to Bradford, McCoy, or Tebow in a national title game crossed Sanchez's thoughts? Possibly. Think about this too, a lot of analysts neglect this fact, they think experience outweighs everything, but look at Matt Cassel. Matt Cassel is the freshest quarterback in the NFL, from high school to the NFL he got hit a number of times you can count on one or two hands. Sanchez is ready, almost prototype 6'3 and 225, only took one year of hits in the college game. Sorry Coach Carrol let him go you've got at least a couple QBs you can start who won't take you out of the top 5 preseason for 2009.

Steelers only team that does work at home...

Home field and a first round bye proved to be the killer for 3 of the 4 teams at home in the divisional round. For some reason the teams that are playing through rolling along with momentum handled their business against those which had the first week bye with the exception of Pittsburgh. The four remaining teams are a #2 seat, #4 seat, and both #6 seats. I think this shows the parity in the league and the separation from top tier to middle tier teams is very slim. I think of the teams that lost in the divisional round the Chargers and the Giants will be faced with the most questions and decisions to make in this off season. The questions are swirling regarding contracts of LT and Sproles in SD and the decision whether or not to bring back Plaxico in New York is stirring. That being said lets get back to the teams still competing this season, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Philly, and Arizona.

Pittsburgh handled their business at home after having a week to rest up. The Chargers came out fast getting a big quick score from Vincent Jackson, but Pittsburgh was Pittsburgh in this one. This was the only threat the Steelers were faced with, throughout the rest of the game they controlled the clock with Willie Parker and played shutdown defense. The little lightning bug Darren Sproles was held in check besides one big play during mop up time. I feel the Chargers do have what it takes to make the jump to the next level, but against a team like Pittsburgh are just outmatched.

Baltimore went into Tennessee ball hungry. Tennessee drove the ball consistently but turned the ball over at 3 crucial times deep in Baltimore territory. This was uncharacteristic for the Titans because this was the opposite of what won them so many games this season, it did not help that Chris Johnson sat the entire second half with a foot injury. Joe Flacco, like all season, not astonishing numbers but made two huge throws one to Mason one to Heap that were huge game deciding throws by the rook. Bottom line, Baltimore out-played and out-physicaled the Titans.

Philly went into the Meadowlands and took care of the Champs. This game was painful to watch because I reluctantly predicted the Giants would win this game in hopes that Eli would legitimize himself as a top tier QB in the league, but sorry Eli you are still the little brother and still not quite a top 10 QB in the NFL. Philly looked like they wanted it more, once again Jim Johnson's defense came out hungry and the Giants looked unenthused and uninspired. Sorry Giants it was a great run last year but you have got a whole lot to think about this off season, like Plaxico and whether to bring back Jacobs or Ward or both.

Arizona = upset of the season. Not a single person in America gave the Cardinals a chance against the Panthers and this fueled the Cardinals fire. Carolina came out strong and everyone thought yup, this is what's gonna happen, except the Cardinals they answered with Larry Fitzgerald, Larry Fitzgerald, and Larry Fitzgerald. In this game he solidified himself as far and away the best wideout in the league, possession catches, acrobatic catches, and catching and taking it to the house. The Cards D was no slouch either, they forced 5, yeah count it 5, Jake Delhomme interceptions. Sorry Jake I like you, I love the fiery leadership and attitude but you can't expect to win throwing it to the wrong team so often. Big-ups to my boy Kurt Warner, keep building the hall of fame resume.